No recession

“Much as Winston Smith came to loveBig Brotherin1984, Wall Street is learning to like MAGA capitalism…As in Orwell’s three-power world, national capitalism creates a stable global equilibrium. With others following the model, there is no choice but to go along with it. US capitalism looks ever more like the version of communism pioneered by China.”
—John Authers, Bloomberg, 15 August 2025

There will, of course, be a next recession. Currently, though, recession probability is low and not rising in earnest:

In Japan, for example, analysts are falling over themselves revising upwards both GDP growth forecasts as well as earnings estimates:

“World” is fine, too:

Some of the self-mutilaters in Europe are going the other way, though:

Germany, Europe’s self-mutliater-in-chief, is “improving, though:

The Citi Macro Risk Index remains implying almost perfect investment bliss:

Not everything is perfect, though: