“Civilization is an interlude between ice ages.” —Will Durant (1885–1981), American writer, historian, and philosopher[1]
Climatism, noun. The climate movement, especially when viewed as an ideology or religion.
This is the start of a series about climatism. It’s a timeline, starting at the beginning and covering various perspectives.
Perspective matters. The timeline was designed to add perspective. (It was also a learning experience for the author, nota bene.) People have strong views on either the apocalyptic view, the lukewarm view, or the hoax view. Some say there is a great risk from climate change; others say there is a great risk from climate policy. Some seek ideology and systems change, while others seek efficient solutions to serious problems. The timeline is supposed to ping-pong between these various views. Some light-hearted views are also touched upon. If there is a special angle, it is “risk” and “risk management”. Fearmongering, for example, can be both a propaganda technique and a risk.
Remember Cecil the Lion a couple of years ago? Cecil was shot by a dentist from Minnesota in Zimbabwe, and there was a huge international outcry as to the evilness of shooting a lion. I remember well an op-ed article written by a young man who grew up in Zimbabwe close to where Cecil was shot and was studying in the US at the time. He was grateful for the dentist killing Cecil, one less monster, I think were his words. His perspective was that lions kill kids playing outside and women fetching water. He considered lions monsters for all those who must put up with them. People who live in nature have a distinct perspective on nature from those who see nature from their balcony or safari bus. He made fun of Westerners who knew lions from the zoo or Lion King and people who thought lions were like Alex from the hit motion picture movie series Madagascar. In the real world, lions do not tap-dance down 5th Avenue, he said. He had a distinct perspective. He had skin in the game. Perspective matters. This timeline needs to be consumed with this in mind.
Timeline
6-3m BC
Bipedalism began, i.e., humanoid monkeys started moving on two legs part-time. That was a pretty big idea. It was an efficiency boost, and the surplus energy allowed our ancestors to direct more energy to the brain, which gave them an edge when managing risk. The hands were freed to use tools and weapons. Our capability to move each finger separately required an even bigger brain, i.e., more energy. Climatism is about energy. Douglas Adams was wrong. The answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe, and everything isn’t 42. It’s energy.
3.5m BC
Our diet started diverging from our monkey brethren, a preference for vitamin-enriched foods. This amplified the evolutionary energy edge of our ancestors over their to-remain-monkey comrades.
“By standards of the geological past, we live in an Ice Age.” —John and Mary Gribbin, authors of Ice Age[2]
2.6m BC
The current Quaternary glaciation began. The Quaternary glaciation is still ongoing as Earth still has ice sheets. “We think that it is normal to have ice at both poles of our planet. After all, there has been ice there for longer than there has been human civilization. But in the long history of the Earth, polar ice caps are rare, and having two polar ice caps at the same time may be unique.”[3]
During glacial periods, ice sheets expand, and during interglacial periods, they contract: Ice and sea levels oscillate. Oscillating ice sheets and sea levels create feedback loops. Next to climate’s chaotic properties, feedback loops complicate matters, making robust forecasting of climate trends exceedingly difficult or impossible. In 1993, James Hansen (b. 1941), the American Atmospheric physicist turned climate activist, wrote: “Climate is always changing. Climate would fluctuate without any change of climate forcings. The chaotic aspect of climate is an innate characteristic of the coupled fundamental equations describing climate system dynamics.”[4]
Early “humans” started using tools more efficiently than other animals. Tools have given us a mechanical advantage in acquiring food, shelter, and clothing.[5]
1m BC
Early humans started using fire. This was very important. King Louie knew this:
“Now don't try to kid me, mancub I made a deal with you What I desire is man's red fire To make my dream come true Give me the secret, mancub Clue me what to do Give me the power of man's red flower So I can be like you” —King Louie, Jungle Book[6]
Cooking food allowed for less energy used for chewing. Again, the surplus energy allowed the brain to develop even further. Allegedly, the Neanderthals had man’s red flower—as King Louie called it—too, but didn’t pick up the idea that cooperation adds value. (They didn’t figure out game theory.)
The mastery of man’s red flower greatly extended our range of habitation and set us further apart from animals and less cooperative humanoids. The combustion of fossil fuels could well be the best and most important idea ever. This means energy is everything, or energy is “everything” times the speed of light squared, as Switzerland’s most famous patent clerk hypothesised.
"You Matter. Unless you multiply yourself by the speed of light squared. Then you Energy." —Neil deGrasse Tyson, X, 9 January 2020
20000 BC
The Last Glacial Maximum was when ice sheets were at an interim maximum, and sea levels were at a minimum. Sea levels have risen around 120 metres since then. Sea levels rose by around 120 mm per decade until about 7,000 years ago. This compares to around 17 mm per decade since 1901 and around 30 mm per decade over the past three decades, according to some estimates. At a rise of 30 mm per decade, it would take roughly 32,000 years until the Statue of Liberty and Big Ben are fully underwater.
Rising sea levels are a fact. Opinions differ on the speed, volatility, human attribution, and current acceleration. Differing data sets and estimates' volatility make it difficult to determine with any degree of confidence what proportion of the rise is man-made. Furthermore, estimates of sea level volatility are a great source for climate charlatans as they allow them to highlight recent volatility and omit past volatility, thus giving the impression that the recent past is more extreme.
“The threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind.” —Nigel Calder (1931-2014), British science writer who was editor of New Scientist from 1962-66 [7]
Global temperatures rose by 5°C over a 10,000-year period. Rising global temperatures, too, are a fact. They have risen by 0.85°C since 1880, based on one estimate. Another estimate is a rise of 0.12°C per decade since 1951. In context, Britain and its neighbourhoods are 6°C warmer due to the Gulf Stream than they would be without it.
The bone of contention is not whether temperatures are rising but about temperature volatility, acceleration of the rise, sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions, and the proportion that is man-made. One pragmatist I encountered thought that about half of the temperature rise since the Industrial Revolution was man-made. Calling it half-half avoids these endlessly tiring debates about what our contribution is.
One comical aspect of climate science is that man-made computer models nearly always overestimate the rise in temperatures. This means that scientific projections are not just wrong; they are wrong in a predictable way. Politics might be involved.
Global warming made First Agricultural Revolution possible.
10000 BC
The current interglacial warm period (Holocene) began, and with it, the Neolithic Revolution, thus making civilisation as we know it possible. Relatively warm and stable temperatures allowed human civilisation to evolve. This also means that temperatures started to rise with the Neolithic Revolution, not the Industrial Revolution.
The Neolithic Revolution was the transition from a nomadic, hunter-gatherer lifestyle to one of agriculture and settlement. It is also called the First Agricultural Revolution because human ingenuity started to alter land, plants, and animals to the benefit of humankind.
One of the comical aspects about conservationists today is that what they perceive as “nature” is man-made. For example, the forests, meadows, cows on the meadows, some rivers, mountain pastures, etc., are the result of man starting to use nature for man’s benefit during the Neolithic Revolution. Nearly all fruits and vegetables in the supermarket are man-made. Nature doesn’t produce grapes without pips, strawberries the size of tennis balls, or cucumbers that obey the EU’s Cucumber Bending Regulation (EEC No. 1677/88). (Fun fact: Austria has had its own cucumber curvature law since 1968.)
7000-4000 BC
The Copper Age, also known as the Chalcolithic Period, coincided with a generally favourable climate epoch called the Holocene Thermal Maximum. Compared to today's average, global temperatures were likely 1-2 degrees Celsius higher during the Copper Age. This made regions hospitable that might be less suitable for human habitation today. The economy was majorly dependent on agriculture, hunting, and fishing. In the Middle East, the Holocene Thermal Maximum was associated with frost-free winters and abundant food/energy. During this interval, the domestication of cereals and population growth occurred in the region. This means civilisation started in earnest thanks to global warming a warmer climate.
“In the next 50 years the fine dust man constantly puts into the atmosphere by fossil fuel-burning could screen out so much sunlight that the average temperature could drop by six degrees.” —S. Ichtiaque Rasool (1930-2016), Atmospheric physicist, in 1971 [8]
3258 BC
Ötzi, the iceman, was killed after lunch (meat from ibex and red deer grain cereals created from einkorn as a side dish). Glaciers were mostly ice-free but started to expand for Ötzi, only to be found when glaciers receded in 1991.[9] As mentioned before, things climatic oscillate over time. The main chart in the exhibit below shows the ice mass estimate of Switzerland’s most famous glacier over the past 3,500 years. The recent peak of ice mass was around 1860. Expanding ice mass destroyed settlements. The religious people organised sermons to soothe the gods. They, in essence, prayed for global warming.
Many glaciers in the northern hemisphere have been retreating since the peak in the 19th century, which allowed Ötzi to be found. One aspect of today's climate debate is that the recent peak around 1860 is often considered the normal state of affairs on which the current theory of anthropogenic global warming is based. However, the peak in 1860 wasn’t normal; it was an exceptionally cold period. One of the coldest in 3,500 years.
Today, Ötzi is a global icon. He reminds us of science's enduring power and the mysteries hidden beneath the earth's surface. Ötzi's body became a scientific wonderland. Analysis revealed his diet, health issues, and even tattoos. He is not just a well-preserved corpse but a window into a bygone era.
To be continued…
[1] Will Durant, The Story of Civilization, Volume 1: Our Oriental Heritage (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1935). The full quotation is worth your consideration, suggesting, of course, that it is global cooling, not global warming, that is the big killer: “Certain factors condition civilization, and may encourage or impede it. First, geological conditions. Civilization is an interlude between ice ages: at any time the current of glaciation may rise again, cover with ice and stone the works of man, and reduce life to some narrow segment of the earth.”
[2] John and Mary Gribbin, Ice Age – The Theory That Came in From The Cold (Colden, CO: ReAnimus Press, 2015), 7.
[7] International Wildlife Magazine, July/August 1975.
[8] Victor Cohn, U.S. Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming, The Washington Post, 9 July 1971.
[9] Wolfgang Behringer, Kulturgeschichte des Klimas: Von der Eiszeit bis zur globalen Erwärmung (München: Beck C.H., 2007), Globale Erwärmung und Zivilisation, Kindle.
